In general, second-year college students with higher academic achievement are more likely than their peers with lower academic achievement to have declared a college major that is consistent with their plans. Figure 2 illustrates the strong positive relationship between students’ ACT Composite score and their planned-declared major consistency rate. Roughly three out of five students with an ACT Composite score in the range of 33 to 36 declared a major that was located in their planned major area, compared with only two out of five students in the score range of one to 15 who declared a major that was consistent with their plans.

When students select a planned major during the ACT registration process, they can also indicate the extent to which they are certain of their choice (i.e., very sure, fairly sure, or not sure). Thirty-eight percent of second-year college students who reported the certainty of their planned college major on the ACT were very sure of their choice; 46% were fairly sure of their choice, and 16% were not sure of their choice.

College students who reported a greater level of certainty regarding their choice of planned major were more likely than those who were less certain to have declared a major by the second year of college that was consistent with their plans. There is an 18 percentage-point difference in the share of students who declared a major within their planned major area between students who were very sure of the planned major and those who were not sure of their choice. Specifically, 56% of students who were very sure of their planned major declared a major that was located in their planned major area, compared to only 47% of students who were fairly sure of their planned major and 38% of students who were not sure of their planned major. This positive relationship between the level of certainty of students’ planned major and the rate at which their declared major was consistent with their plans was similar across all planned major areas.

The Interest-Major Fit index measures the strength of the relationship between the student’s profile of ACT Interest Inventory scores and the profile of interests of students in a given major. Thirty-nine percent of second-year college students who selected a planned major during ACT registration chose a major that is a good fit with their interests, as measured by the ACT Interest Inventory; another 32% selected a planned major that had a moderate fit with their interests, whereas 29% chose a planned major that had a poor fit with their interests.

As with the self-reported measure of students’ certainty of their planned major choice, the extent to which students’ choice of planned major aligns with their measured interests is a good predictor of whether they will follow through on their plans during college. There is a 14 percentage-point difference in the share of students who followed through on their plans and declared a major within their planned major area between students who had a good Interest-Major Fit and those with a poor Interest-Major Fit for their planned major choice. Specifically, 55% of students who had a good Interest-Major Fit for their planned major had declared a major that was consistent with their plans, compared to 48% of students with a moderate Interest-Major Fit for their planned major and only 41% of students with a poor Interest-Major Fit for their planned major. This same positive relationship holds across all planned major areas but two: Community, Family, and Personal Services; and Health Administration and Assisting. Within these two major areas, there is no relationship between Interest-Major Fit and planned-declared major consistency.

When examined separately, second-year college students with higher ACT Composite scores, greater certainty about their choice of planned major and better Interest-Major Fit were more likely than their peers to declare a major that is located in their planned major area. When examined together, it becomes clearer how these three indicators operate relatively independently and additively to predict planned-declared major consistency in the second year of college. As seen in Figure 3, within each combination of ACT Composite score range and level of Interest-Major Fit, the planned-declared major consistency rate increases with greater levels of planned major certainty. Similarly, within each combination of ACT Composite score range and level of planned major certainty, the planned-declared major consistency rate increases with improvement in students’ Interest-Major Fit. Finally, within each combination of level of Interest-Major Fit and level of planned major certainty, the planned-declared major consistency rate increases with students’ ACT Composite score range.